Thursday, April 4, 2019
Impact of the Cold War On Vietnam Economy
Impact of the low temperature War On Vietnam EconomyAfter dickens protracted wars with the French colonial empire, followed by a thirty year conflict with the US super magnate, Vietnam was frugalally devastated. However, during the following forty years Vietnam has developed a vibrant and progressive frugality and gradually achieved recognition as a major economical power within the South eastbound Asian region. Since the unification in 1975, economic growth was place as the most key performer in the strategic outgrowth of Vietnam. However, the first decade following the rarity of the war with the US was adept in which the Cold War had a remarkable tinge upon the Vietnam thriftiness. Vietnam was perish by the communistic calvey and aligned its political and economic policies to strict socialist principles that mirrored the Soviet model and based decision-making on strict commie criteria(i) State or collective ownership of labor means(ii) giving medication adminis tered supply of physical input and output(iii) Lack of business autonomy, absence of component merchandises, highly regulated goods and services markets and(iv) A bias toward heavy industry in investments.(Vo Tri Thanh and Nguyen Thu Anh, (2006) Eaber Working account serial publication publisher No.8 Institutional changes for tete-a-tete sector emergence in Vietnam. p.3)The government policy meant that Vietnam was restrict to trade principal(prenominal)ly with other communist countries and the outcome was a dramatic decline in the Vietnam saving and change magnitude destitution amongst the vast majority of the population. Further conflicts with China in 1979 and Cambodia in 1978 placed Vietnam in a position of further weakness and rather than concentrate on economic recovery, the improvement of motor skills, and rude and consumer goods production the Government foc utilize on the building up of heavy industry. This period of Sovietisation brought as yet further problem s for the Vietnam economy and the virtual decade of stagnation only began to repeal in 1986 with the introduction of inside Moi.(Bui That Thang, (2001)After the war 25 years of Economic maturement in Vietnam, NIRA Review , p21-22). With consumption regularly great than national income and numerous periods of famine relieved only by foreign aid, the decade from 1976 to 1986 marked a period of economic collapse in Vietnam, and was only ended with the introduction of Doi Moi as the gunpoint marking when Vietnam switched from the Soviet model to a drive towards a free market economy.The renovation (Doi Moi) in 1986 brought about a dramatic change for post war Vietnam, as described by Thanh and Ha ( social inequality.., chap2 p63) who declare it a accredited turning point in the history of Vietnams economic development . It was shifted from a centrally planned economy to a new system of a market lie economy. An important factor to note is that the decision to move towards a free market and thus, politically and ideologically change the basis of the Vietnam economy was made prior to the collapse of the Soviet join. The Vietnamese Government get that the Soviet model was failing and that Vietnam faced a major economic crisis, with acute shortages of food, basic consumer goods, and inputs to floriculture and industry, and a growing external debt.(Thanh and Anh, 2006, p.3). It was decided to establish synchronous institutions of a market economy by socialism orientation (Ibid, p.2).The end of Cold War in 1991 followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union was a new challenge to Vietnam. Fortunately, Vietnam was already reforming its political and economic sectors by the time the collapse of the Soviet Union had ended and economic growth, policies to reduce macroeconomic instability and to introduce a multi-ownership structure were already in place. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union still meant that Vietnam faced a new future without the ideologically c ommitted support of a Super Power, isolating Vietnam from much of the external community, a problems exasperated by the continued control of the surface area by the Communist Party. However, this essay contribute argue that although the major factor that impacted on many of the eastern hemisphereern European countries for example, was the decline and fall of Communist administrations, in the fount of Vietnam, the Communist Party extended in power, and provided the stability and security that provided the right conditions for impressive aims of continuous economic growth that has made Vietnam one of the tiger economies of South East Asia. It will alike argue that the political and economic future of Vietnam is dependent on Vietnam remaining one of the most politically and security stable countries in South east Asia, and that stability is borne from the Communist political company remaining in control of the country. This contrasts with the former Soviet Union countries who have made their economic futures dependent on the political system rejecting all the tenets of fabianism and moving not only from a centrally controlled economy but also rejecting the idea of a one- party system. However, Vietnam has remained true to its political identity as a socialist republic while allowing reforms in politics and economics that has finally brought it recognition as a truly heart-to-heart and free market economy that has recently been rewarded with membership of the World Trade Organisation.The essay will follow the path by dint of this process of reform and demonstrate how the economy has managed to develop to international recognition as one of the winged growing economies in the World and still remained Communist. The end of the Cold War was universally seen as the end of Communism, and yet, like China, the Vietnam economy has been transformed whilst not drastically reforming the political system, which has remained true to the thoughts of Ho Chi Minh an d sympathise with Marxist Leninism. The Communist Party still remains in power in Vietnam and its economic triumph is likely to re-enforce the belief that it will retain political control over the nation for decades to come. This essay will show how the Communist Party has managed to transform its economy and remain socialist.Prior to 1980s, Vietnam was still a unwilling agricultural country. In addition, as a socialist country, Vietnams economy was controlled and developed by a centrally planned system modelled on the Soviet Union. The Government reanimateed the dominant role in close all activities and people who worked for government were paid by the system of budget subsidies. And all the trading actions were reign by large State owned endeavours that had collectivised almost all areas of economic activity, while unavowed business was virtually non-existent (Pham, 2005,p4). Unfortunately, because of the mismatch between the management and the actual practices of the gove rnment, the economy of Vietnam didnt achieve any of their economic targets laid down in subsequent four year plans. The leaders then realised that centrally planned system was not a good structure for Vietnams development and whilst the Soviet Union was dramatically moving towards political collapse for the same reasons, Vietnams Communist Party believed that its ideological control over the country through one-party rule would actually have a positive impact on economic reform by providing an purlieu of stability and security, whilst establish an economy based upon capitalistic principles, free markets and an open door set of policies.The Communist Party identified eight major policies of reform that would be used to go about a complete transition of the economy and these wereAlmost complete price liberalizationLarge devaluation and unification of the exchange rateIncreases in interest rates to positive levels in real termsSubstantial reduction in subsidies to the SOE sectorAgr icultural reforms through replacement of cooperatives by households as the basic decision-making unit in production and security of tenure for farm familiesEncouragement of the domestic private sector and foreign direct investment (FDI)Removal of domestic trade barriers and creation of a more open economy.(Thanh and Anh, p.6).The main point here is that these are all significant movements towards policies found in the capitalist West and were only possible in the former Soviet client states such as Poland and East Germany by also moving the political systems towards the Western democracy model. However, the Sixth Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party-1986 believed that reform could follow the basic practical policies of the Western democracies but remain true to Communism by actually increasing state control and management and macro regulation. Communism would allow stability to remain in the political arena and the economic policies would themselves be directed towards mainta ining socialist targets. This mix of socialist and capitalist policies to retain some level of equity amongst the general society is one now beingness discussed by many of the mainland European Union members who now identify a full Communist regime as still unacceptable, but the monetarist free market economy as equally at fault in the wake of the major financial crisis at the end of 2008. However, the main contention is that Vietnam remains a one party system, but there is very little evidence of any deep protest or wish to change this system by the vast majority of the Vietnamese population. Although we are examining here the cognitive process of Vietnam since the Cold War it is thus essential to understand that unlike Russia and the former members of the USSR, Vietnam was able to transform its economy without major political regime change. (Thang, 2001, p.3). in the following paragraphs we look at how this was possible.Up to 1990 the Doi Moi reforms did bring about a number of improvements in the economy. From 1989 onwards, Vietnam was on the way to becoming one of the three main big rice exportationers in the world, many state subsidies were disappearing and SOEs were constantly warned to reform and restructure, but not immediately encouraged to denationalize. Over these years the growth rate hovered around the 4.5% mark and the reforms were only slow impacting upon Vietnams overall economic performance.Doi Moi involved a commitment to dismantling cooperatives and shifting production off from a household economy to the private sector, whilst also restructuring the state-owned sector to be more competitive. However, the real impact of policies changes did not really take effect until post-1990.The outcome was significant development with the GDP growth averaging 8.5% from 1990 to 1997 and averaging 6.5% from 1998 to 2003. average out foreign trade and Foreign Direct investment(FDI) improved to nearly $18 billion USD by 2007 and agricultural production doubled from 1990 to 2005, while exports reached $49 billion USD per year by 2007. The per capita income rose from $220 USD in 1994 to $832 by 2007 and industrial production went from 27.3% of GDP in 1985 to 41.6% in 2007. Many industries reached impressive rates of growth, such as in the production of oil which went from 40,000 gobs in 1986 to 7.6 million tons in 1990 and 12.5 million tons in 1998 (Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen Thang (2007) Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam an overview and analysis. MPRA Archive root word No1921). In the final part of this essay we concentrate on how FDI has been example of how the Communist Party, its policies of reform and the growth of the economy have require interlinked in bringing about a productive basis for even greater levels of development in the future.The levels of development are impressive with a reduction in the inflation rate from a alarming 774% in 1986 to a manageable 7.5% in 2006, while also achieving a poverty reduction leve l of 22% in 2005 from the 58.1% recorded in 1993. By 2007 there were 7067 FDI projects with a capital of $63.5billion US. This dramatic success was as a result of the following factorsStrategic locationStable economic and political environmentLarge natural mineral resourcesA young and well-educated workforceThe ability to be an export platform for US and EU marketsLiberal investment environment and a commitment by the Government to economic reform.In Vietnam it is the ever-changing locations of the Communist Party and the Government towards the foreign economic sector as an important step towards economic growth that has significantly assisted the improvement of the economy. Alongside this have been the increasing levels of economic competition from other countries in the region and advances in international commitments helped by a changing political and ideological approach to participating in global economic trade (2006, 180). A significant factor in encouraging this change in at titudes has been the realization that FDI has a vital role to play in the mobilization of capital, technology, organizational and managerial skills (21). The radical change in the Communist Party attitude towards FDI was the institutionalization of FDI as a separate economic sector and recognition that FDI was a vital driving force towards the overall development of the Vietnam economy (ibid).The improvement in investment in Vietnam has been assisted by a commitment throughout business, government and society to improve the image and identity of Vietnam, not least being in its international participation in political and economic forums. (Pham Thi Huyen 2009 The Nationality Factor in Assessing Hanoi Investment purlieu in Business Environment and Policies in Hanoi, Hanoi, Vietnam)A further example of well the Vietnam economy has developed under the guidance of the Communist Party is the increasing participation of Vietnam in international forums and the successful entry into intern ational forums such as the World Trade Organisation. Viet Nam joined the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1995, and committed to AFTA prior to the Enterprise Law reform period. Viet Nam also joined APEC in 1998.Vietnam has been an official member of WTO since 2007. Before that, there had been an increasingly strong public policy commitment to connection the WTO in recent years, and references were made to the need to reform to join the WTO in the policy debate on private sector development during the second half of the 1990s. The enterprise reforms have been consistent with efforts to join the WTO, and the confide to join WTO has strengthened the hand of those pushing for improvements in the regulatory environment for business during the reform of the Enterprise Law . However, it is difficult to assess the extent to which the desire to join the WTO provided impetus for the Enterprise Law reforms Results, Challenges and Prospects, Vietnams Socio-Economic Developmen t A Social Science Review, No.31, Autumn Doanh, Le Dang, (2002), Foreign Direct Investment in Viet Nam charm it is difficult to identify connections between aspirations to join regional and international bodies and the Enterprise Law reforms, contacts with regional and international bodies have almost certainly helped the reform process. The economic performance of other ASEAN members and China are important benchmarks with which Viet Nams policy makers often compare their own performance. Even prior to joining ASEAN, Vietnamese officials went on pick out tours to ASEAN member countries to study issues related to improving the enabling environment for business development.A crucial development in the reform of the economy of Vietnam was the new Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) between Viet Nam and the USA, which was signed in December 2001, well after the major Enterprise Law reforms had been implemented. The private sector reforms implemented during the 2nd half of the 1990s almost certainly helped the process of reaching bargain on the BTA. This new agreement marked an important watershed in the relations not only between Vietnam and the US, but also the rest of the world. The signing of the agreement between Vietnam and its former enemy signified a leap in front in the status of Vietnam and officially marked the end of most political and economic hostilities between the two former enemies. However, its signing was predicated on the absolute commitment of Vietnam to continue economic reform and also suggested that political reform especially in democratization of Vietnam was almost certainly on the cards for the future (Ibid).Thus, Vietnam is a special case to examine in the study of the impact of the end of the Cold War upon Communist and former Communist states. In the case of Vietnam, not only have they remained under the one party rule of the Communist Party, they have also successfully reformed their economy, with the Communist Government able to prov ide the right levels of stability and security to continue to develop in the future. Thus, it is also a case of how the political orientation of a country and its economic reform are linked, but the case of Vietnam it is an example of a country being ruled consistently under the socialist thought of Ho Chi Minh, maintaining one party rule but was also able to transform an economy from state central control to a free market. It is also known as a peaceful, secure and safe environment in the ticker of a South East Asian region. A region that is more often now identified with the increasing problems of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism, such as in Thailand and Malaysia. While economic growth continues, the levels of extreme poverty are continually being lowered and the wealth of the economic success is to some extent shell out down the masses through policies based on socialist principles, the one party rule of the Communist Party in Vietnam is likely to continueRef.Nguyen Ngoc A nh, Nguyen Thang (2007) Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam an overview and analysis. MPRA Archive Paper No1921)Le Dang, (2002), Results, Challenges and Prospects, Vietnams Socio-Economic Development A Social Science Review, No.31, Autumn Doanh, Foreign Direct Investment in Viet NamLe The Gioi (2004), Moi truong dau tu tai Viet Nam qua goc nhin cua nha dau tu nuoc ngoai, Le The Gioi, Journal of Economics and Forecast, vol 1, 2004.Pham Thi Huyen (2009) The Nationality Factor in Assessing Hanoi Investment Environment in Business Environment and Policies in Hanoi, Hanoi, VietnamNguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen Thang (2007) Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam an overview and analysis. MPRA Archive Paper No1921Bui That Thang, (2001)After the war 25 years of Economic Development in Vietnam, NIRA Review , p21-22).Vo Tri Thanh and Nguyen Thu Anh, (2006) Eaber Working Paper series Paper No.8 Institutional changes for private sector development in Vietnam.